31 August 2008 - 20:44Veepstakes - The Aftermath
After weeks of stakeouts, leaks, rumors and specualtion, we now have our Vice Presidential nominees for the two major Presidential candidates in the upcoming November elections. Senator Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. of Delaware and Governor Sarah Louise Heath Palin of Alaska are two nominees which present both distinct benefits and distinct problems for their respective running mates in matters of strategy, message and post-election utility. Ignore the bumps in the polls, the issues of timing and other short-term issues and look long term for a moment. Which candidate is really sitting pretty with their VP pick, and how will these picks resonate with American voters, if at all?
A caveat is in order. Vice presidential nominees, even in the 24 hour era of American news media, have rarely made a great impact on voter behavior. At the end of the day, the Veepstakes rarely end up being little more than something for the news networks to talk about to run out the clock between the primaries and the party conventions; thank the stupidity of frontloaded party primaries for that one. But in the afterglow of Biden and Palin’s nominations, it is worth questioning such conventional wisdom given the advanced age of John McCain (R-AZ), the unprecedented candidacy of Barack Obama (D-IL) and the possible impact of credible third party candidates such as Ralph Nader (I-CT), Bob Barr (L-GA), Chuck Baldwin (C-FL) and Cynthia McKinney (G-GA). Given the presence of these factors, Biden and Palin must be more than glorified cheerleaders for their running mates for the next 65 days. They must also demonstrate an ability to be a unifying force within their party, the capacity to serve as a guide to the new generation of leaders in both the Democratic and Republican Parties, and be able to stand up and take charge of the Presidency in the unthinkable but not entirely implausible event that the winner of this election passes away while in office.
It is an almost-impossible balancing act, but it is very possible that the more effective candidate in accomplishing such a task could play a pivotal role in deciding the election. So with this considered, let us look at the nominees and their impact on the race.
Joe Biden (D-DE)
Senator Biden is a Washington lifer in every sense of the word. A Senator since 1973, the man with the magic hairplugs has been paying his dues to the Democratic Party longer than many of his newest friends in Obamamania have been alive. In the 1988 Presidential election, he was a frontrunner to take on George H.W. Bush, but a rather overblown plagiarism scandal took him out of the running. Now he has been given about the best form of redemption that an overly-talkative fundraising wimp could ever hope to get with the Vice Presidential nod from Senator Obama. What does Senator Biden precisely offer to the Obama campaign?
Pros
- Feistiness and good humor - Biden’s keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention showed Biden’s ability to hit the applause lines, get good laughs, and fire off effective shots at John McCain. Obama is not well-served by being the put bull in this race while he lectures away about getting rid of “politics as usual”. He must remain above such a hypocritical posture and leave the attacking to surrogates who know what they’re doing. Biden is one of those guys.
- Policy heavyweight - From the Clarence Thomas hearings to the Violence Against Women Act to matters of foreign policy, Biden is considered one of the more experienced policy minds in Congress. This is a critical balance to the Obama’s campaign’s perceived or actual lack of substance on many critical domestic and international issues.
- Experience - 35+ years of Senate experience make him a very appealing choice for Obama, and might be a more comforting option than Palin when considering which might be more qualified to lead from Day One should Obama die in office or resign.
Cons
- Experience - There is a theme that is shared by these two nominees, despite their very clear differences at face value. Both Palin and Biden find themselves creating new spin opportunities for the opposition, often at the expense of some trump cards their subjective campaigns had used to their advantage up to this point. In Obama’s case, the presence of Biden on the Presidential ticket is hard to reconcile with his campaign’s motto of “change we can believe in”. It could be argued that the selection of Biden rather than a pragmatic red state Governor like Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Phil Bredesen of Tennessee or Brian Schweitzer of Montana represents a dangerous departure from Obama’s change message. It is a charge that while not impossible to rebut, might be something that will bug Obama all the way to November 4.
- Loose lips… - Biden himself will be the first to admit that when it comes to talking, he likes to shoot his mouth off first and survey the carnage afterwards. His off-color comments about Indian-Americans, remarks about his high IQ and Obama being a “clean, nice-looking guy” might play well in the very white, well-educated state of Delaware, where he is a state institution to boot, but flyover country and the Deep South might not be so receptive to a man who is not good friends with open mics.
- Arrogance - For a guy who takes the Amtrak home every night and has very serious problems with his own property taxes and insurance rates, Biden can and does come off as a very cocky, arrogant fellow at times. Perhaps six terms in the ultimate gentleman’s club known as the United States Senate has given him an air of prissiness that doesn’t jive with the Obama camp’s image of him as the blue-collar Catholic kid from Scranton. Whatever the case, Biden would do well to make sure he avoids his tendency to talk down to people, especially when taking on the female Sarah Palin in the Vice Presidential debate. Condescension is a nasty color to wear around a woman.
On the whole, Biden does a great deal of good for Obama, and in a perfect world, more good than bad. He is a known figure whose personal problems have been dragged through the mud many a time already. Any personal attacks would thus lose a lot of impact on people. But the McCain camp jumped hard on his selections by Obama with two hard-hitting, if not very disingenuous ads attacking the VP vetting process. This neutralized Biden’s impact on the race, which after the weeks of hype leading up to his nomination, had to deliver a major blow to internal morale in the Obama campaign and the DNC writ large. Ready to lead? Probably. Ready to help bring victory for the Democrats in November? Hard to say for sure.
Overall - B minus.
Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) would have made for a great show at St. Paul. Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) would have been the ultimate insurance policy for McCain in must-win states like Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico. Not to mention both of them have spent the past five months criss-crossing the country practically begging for the nod. So you can imagine the media’s surprise, if not outright shock, when a little-known former Mayor of a town of less than 5,000 people and Governor of a state with a smaller population than many United States Congressional districts was chosen to be McCain’s running mate. The Politico was uncharacteristically blunt in their assessment, saying the selection of Sarah Palin was proof that the McCain campaign was “desperate”. Paul Begala asked “what were they thinking?” upon hearing the news. Well, what might have actually crossed the McCain campaign’s mind when they went with Palin?
Pros
- Broader demographic appeal - Pawlenty would have kept Minnesota close, and Romney would have helped a lot out west. But Palin’s statistical value to McCain cannot be seen if considered directly in terms of electoral votes. She gives McCain a yet to be seen bump with women voters who identify with her status as a working mom. She helps him with young Republican voters who see her as a fresh new face in the party (and the sexy librarian look does not hurt either, this writer must confess). And most importantly, she has excited disaffected conservatives who were quite rightly suspicious of McCain’s loyalty to conservative values. This is a constituency that McCain has made a career out of alienating to suit his own political needs. With Palin’s pick along with his performance at the Saddleback Forum, he has exploited the value of treating this large constituency as something other than yesterday’s garbage, as he has for the past twenty-five years.
- The chick factor - Ask any political consultant worth paying for and he will tell you that being a woman is a huge asset in a campaign, as a general rule. Unless you are already a highly polarizing candidate, like a Hillary Rodham Clinton or Katherine Harris, the gender advantages that God has afforded women like Sarah Palin are considerable. Personal attacks [putting aside the spurious 4chan/DailyKos prank about her youngest son] are all but off limits, as voters are almost universally turned off by the appearance of a woman being ganged up on by men. Her maternal instincts and sensibilities can resonate with female voters, and even to younger male voters who can identify with their own moms when they see her in action.
- Looking long-term - The selection of Palin is an affirmation of the reality that John McCain is not going to be the standard bearer of the Republican Party for very long, even if he elected President. He and his generation have perhaps unwittingly conceded that their ideals and brand of politics are not long for this world, and that the inter-generational battle between the youth and the establishment of the GOP will enter into a new phase of entrenchment and advancement for the party’s rising stars. The splintering of the various factions of the GOP made plain by the Presidential primary will get worse before they get better, but with figures like Palin taking center stage, the possibility of a smoother transition now exists.
Cons
- The next Dan Quayle - Like Quayle, Palin is another nationally unknown figure picked to assuage concerns about the GOP’s nominee and his conservative credentials. Quayle did accomplish this to some extent, but his lack of name recognition allowed his detractors to aggressively define the Indiana University Law School grad as an ignorant boob, and possibly prevent an even greater landslide for George H.W. Bush in 1988. I am rather convinced that Palin can spell “potato” correctly, but her performance at the Vice Presidential debate will be a key factor in how voters perceive her.
- Experience - A major ace in the McCain campaign’s deck was their attacks on Obama’s lack of experience and perceived lack of preparedness to be President. The selection of Palin, not unlike Obama’s selection of Biden, at least temporarily throws a wrench into that narrative that the opposition can exploit. The Obama campaign, on balance, appears to have a more compelling case now on the “can she step in if McCain dies” question than the McCain camp has for Obama. However, with 65 days and a lot of other questions on the table, it remains to be seen if that question will mobilize voters in any direction and in any reasonable quanity.
The Palin pick certainly accomplished what the McCain campaign hoped for and more. She has stopped at least a bit of the momentum Obama could have gained from his convention speech, and has rejuvenated the Republican base in a way that McCain has not since the campaign began, with the possible exception of the grating “drill here, drill now” phenomenon (and credit for that goes to Newt Gingrich, anyway). Over the next week or so, she will get to experience the joy of the media smear machine just as Biden did in 1988. How she endures that will make a major impact on how her pick helps or hinders the McCain candidacy.
Overall - B plus.
It’s going to be a very exciting last couple of months, to be sure. Just make sure not to forget about your local elections as well. In the grand scheme of things, whoever wins the Presidency isn’t going to have much of an impact on your life compared to your Mayors and Sheriffs and County Commissioners and other local office holders. Florida primary turnout was absolutely abysmal last week; come November 4, we need to be on the ball and voting. That’s all.
EDIT: Oh, and an informative (if slanted) Palin site, courtesy of a friend.
http://palin4america.wordpress.com/
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